000
FXUS64 KEWX 102109
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
309 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT TEXAS THIS WEEK IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS
SYSTEM IS PUSHING A PACIFIC (DRY) FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH OBSERVED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AN UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE EXISTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUSTED THE CAP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHED DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND A
RAPIDLY ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY OVERTAKE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD STORM SYSTEM OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PUSH OVER TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...AND GENERALLY 3 TO 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
SUNDAY...WHEN GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A LIMITED RETURN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...LEADING TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OVERCAST/RAINY CONDITIONS
OVER OUR AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE COMPARABLE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ARE SHOWING RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NOW...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS UP COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OUR MAX TEMP NUMBERS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WELL
BELOW THE 12Z GFS MOS...AS THERE IS NO WAY WE`LL BE ANYWHERE NEAR
THE MOS NUMBERS ON MON/TUE IF THE MODEL SOLUTION WORKS OUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR EDWARDS...VAL VERDE AND KINNEY
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. A REPEAT EVENT IS LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SPREADING EVEN
FURTHER EAST. ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED AND WOULD
LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  77  47  73  45 /   0  -   -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  77  42  71  39 /   0  -   -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  78  42  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  73  42  70  43 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  76  44  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  75  43  70  43 /   0  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  80  41  75  40 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        42  77  43  72  43 /   0  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  76  46  70  45 /  -   -   -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  78  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  78  44  75  41 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: EDWARDS...KINNEY...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

11/18